The forecast for demand for steel in China this year is +0-2% y/y

Global steel company ArcelorMittal expects global steel demand to grow by 3-4% in 2024, excluding China, compared to 2023. This forecast was published in the company’s financial report for 2023.

The company’s forecast is based on an improvement in the global steel market as the inventory release phase is nearing completion.

At the same time, demand growth is limited amid weak construction activity in the European Union and rising interest rates in the United States, which negatively affects domestic steel consumption. In China, the world’s largest consumer of iron ore and steel, the steel industry is suffering from ongoing problems in the real estate sector.

«However, looking ahead, there are already preliminary signs of a more constructive backdrop for the industry,» said ArcelorMittal CEO Aditya Mittal.

According to the company, in 2024, inventory levels will not decline under the pressure of slowing demand, which was observed in 2023 in both Europe and the United States. In China, steel consumption will be stable as government stimulus measures are likely to offset weakness in the real estate market.

ArcelorMittal expects steel demand to grow by 1.5-3.5% in the US in 2024, by 2-4% in the EU, by 0.5-2.5% in Brazil, and by 6.5-8.5% in India. China will see the lowest recovery in demand – 0-2%.

As GMK Center reported earlier, ArcelorMittal reduced steel production by 1.5% in 2023 compared to 2022, to 58.1 million tons. Iron ore production last year decreased by 7.3% y/y – to 42 million tons.

The company’s net profit for the year decreased by 54.1% y/y – to $4.87 billion. EBITDA amounted to $7.56 billion (-46.6% y/y), operating income – $2.34 billion (-77.2% y/y), and revenue – $68.27 billion (-14.5% y/y).