The forecast for global growth five years from now is the lowest in decades

The International Monetary Fund (IMF) expects the global economy to grow at 3.2% in 2024 and 2025, the same pace as last year. This is stated in the April World Economic Outlook report.

A slight acceleration in developed countries, where growth is expected to increase from 1.6% last year to 1.7% in 2024 and 1.8% in 2025, will be offset by a moderate slowdown in emerging and developing countries – from 4.3% in 2023 to 4.2% in 2024 and 2025.

The institution expects economic growth in the euro area to accelerate to 0.8% this year and 1.5% next year. At the same time, the IMF predicts a slowdown in Ukraine’s GDP growth this year to 3.2% and an acceleration to 6.5% in 2025.

The IMF’s forecast of global growth in five years – 3.1% – is the lowest in decades.

Global inflation will decline steadily from 6.8% in 2023 to 5.9% in 2024 and 4.5% in 2025.

According to the IMF, the risks to the global economic outlook are now generally balanced.

«As for the negative factors, new price spikes caused by geopolitical tensions, in particular as a result of the war in Ukraine and the conflict in Gaza and Israel, may, along with the sustainability of core inflation, provided that tight labor markets remain, lead to higher interest rate expectations and lower asset prices,» the review says.

The World Trade Organization forecasts that global merchandise trade will grow by 2.6% this year and by 3.3% in 2025. In 2023, global trade in goods decreased by 1.2% in value terms.