Inflation in Ukraine fell to 7.2% y/y in June

Price rises are expected to accelerate towards the end of 2026

The fall in consumer prices in Ukraine in June 2026 stood at 0.1%, compared with a 0.9% rise in May. On a year-on-year basis, inflation at the end of June fell to 7.2% from 8.2% in May. This was reported by the State Statistics Service.

In the consumer market in June, prices for food and non-alcoholic drinks fell by 0.8%. Eggs saw the sharpest fall in price (by 27.8%). Prices for vegetables, processed cereal products, lard, fruit, sugar, rice and poultry fell by between 3.7 and 0.6%.

At the same time, prices for sunflower oil, fish and fish products, pasta and bread rose by between 1.7% and 1.0%. Clothing and footwear became 2.3% cheaper; specifically, footwear fell by 3.0% and clothing by 1.9%.

The 0.9% rise in prices (tariffs) for housing, water, electricity, gas and other fuels was mainly due to a 15.3% increase in water supply tariffs and a 14.6% rise in sewerage charges. Transport prices rose by 0.2%, mainly due to a 3.4% and 1.2% increase in fares for rail and road passenger transport, respectively. At the same time, fuel and lubricants fell in price by 1.6%.

The National Bank expects inflation to remain close to current levels in the coming months, before accelerating towards the end of the year. One of the factors driving price rises in previous months was the war in the Middle East, which led to a sharp rise in energy prices. Whilst at the end of last year the NBU had forecast inflation of 6.6% for 2026, it now expects it to reach 9.4%.

As reported by GMK Center, in June the NBU kept its policy rate at 15%. This decision ensures that current monetary conditions remain sufficiently tight, whilst also taking into account the strong demand for hryvnia-denominated savings instruments and the need to mitigate risks associated with the war in the Middle East and a shortage of external financing.