The price of CBAM certificates is not expected to change significantly in Q2 – forecast

The price of CBAM allowances in the second quarter of this year is likely to remain very close to the price seen in January–March. This forecast comes from CO2 iq.

As noted, although carbon prices at auctions in the European ETS fell from over €90/t to around €60/t in the first quarter, they remained stable in the second quarter at €70–80/t.

The average price since April currently stands at €74.62/t. With only a few auctions remaining until the end of June, CO2 iq expects the following levels for the second quarter:

• upper limit – €75.27/t, should prices return to the second-quarter peak of €79.37/t.
• lower limit – €74.07/t, provided prices fall to the second-quarter low of €70.6/t.

On 6 July, the European Commission will announce the official price of the CBAM allowance for the second quarter.

Given the proposals for ETS reform expected in July, the situation may once again become unpredictable in the third quarter.

It should be recalled that on 7 April, the European Commission officially set the base price of the CBAM certificate for the first quarter of 2026 at €75.36 per tonne of CO2.

Importers of goods covered by the CBAM will be required to purchase the relevant allowances from February 2027 to cover their imports from the previous year (2026). In 2026, their price will be calculated as the average quarterly price of allowances set at EU ETS auctions. From 2027, the European Commission will calculate and publish weekly prices.