The NBU lowered the discount rate to 15%

The National Bank of Ukraine has lowered its key policy rate from 15.5% to 15%, according to a statement from the regulator.

This move is consistent with bringing inflation to the 5% target over the policy horizon and will support the economy. The NBU will continue to respond flexibly to changes in the distribution of risks.

As noted, in December, both consumer and core inflation slowed to 8% year-on-year. According to NBU estimates, annual consumer price growth also slowed in January. However, inflation expectations remained relatively high. The regulator predicts that inflation will continue to decline in the coming months, primarily due to the continued impact of higher harvests in 2025.

«At the same time, the impact of large-scale destruction in the energy sector will put pressure on prices through both market and administrative mechanisms. Together with the effects of the low base of comparison, they will cause a moderate acceleration of inflation in the second half of the year. Therefore, according to the results of 2026, inflation will decline moderately to 7.5%,» the NBU said in a statement.

The NBU also lowered its GDP growth forecasts for the current year, primarily due to the electricity shortage caused by Russian shelling of the power grid. By the end of 2026, Ukraine’s economy is expected to grow by 1.8% (previously 2%). The gradual improvement in the energy sector, further infrastructure reconstruction, and increased private investment will contribute to accelerating economic growth to about 3-4% in 2027-2028, the regulator notes.

It should be recalled that on January 14, the NBU eased a number of currency restrictions and clarified the specifics of currency regulation in order to support Ukrainian businesses. The regulator is introducing a new incentive “borrowing” limit to increase the flexibility of Ukrainian enterprises in managing funds attracted from abroad, creating a regulatory basis for facilitating the restructuring of old external loans.