New US duties disrupt EU steel market recovery by 2026 – EUROFER

Due to trade turmoil in the EU, steel consumption is expected to fall for the fourth consecutive year

The new 50% US tariff on steel imports has dealt a powerful blow to the already weakened European steel market. According to the latest economic and market forecast by the European Steel Association (EUROFER), the previously expected growth in 2025 will not materialize. Instead, the EU will see a fourth consecutive year of decline in steel consumption – by 0.9% in 2025 after -1.1% in 2024.

The situation in industry remains weak amid the relative resilience of the service sector. Overall steel consumption will not grow significantly until 2026, and its volumes remain well below pre-pandemic levels.

“The new US duties are another blow to the EU market, which is already suffering from global overcapacity, high energy prices and geopolitical instability. Producers are forced to stop production, lay off workers and curtail decarbonization projects,” said EUROFER CEO Axel Eggert.

In 2024, steel consumption increased only in the fourth quarter (+0.5%) and amounted to 30.1 million tons. However, domestic supplies declined again, by 2%, and imports reached a historically high share of 27%.

Steel-consuming sectors maintained their negative dynamics. The automotive industry (-2.6%) and construction lost the most. In 2025, the steel-intensive industries production index (SWIP) is expected to decline again by 0.5%, with recovery possible only in 2026 (+1.3%).

As a reminder, EUROFER has called on the European Commission to immediately implement the promised “highly effective trade measure” in response to the US decision to increase the total duty on steel imports to 50%. The organization warns that without urgent action, the European market could be flooded with cheap steel previously destined for the US market.