IMF downgrades global GDP growth forecast to 2.8% in 2025

The global economy will be affected by escalating trade tensions and political uncertainty

Global GDP growth will slow to 2.8% in 2025 and 3% in 2026. This is the updated World Economic Outlook (WEO) published by the International Monetary Fund (IMF).

The rapid escalation of trade tensions and extremely high levels of political uncertainty are expected to have a significant impact on global economic activity, the new review says.

The January review expected global GDP to grow by 3.3% in 2025 and 2026.

It is emphasized that the situation has changed as governments around the world are changing their policy priorities. Among other things, since the January WEO, a number of new tariff measures have been announced and implemented by the United States and countermeasures by its trading partners. This culminated in the introduction of almost universal US tariffs on April 2, bringing effective tariff rates to a level not seen in the last century. This in itself is a serious negative shock to growth, the IMF says.

The unpredictability with which these measures were unfolding, among other things, makes forecasting difficult. Therefore, the IMF calls the April review a “reference forecast” based on information as of April 4, 2025, including the April 2 tariffs and initial reactions. It is supplemented by a number of global growth forecasts, primarily under different trade policy assumptions.

For Ukraine, the GDP growth forecast for the current year has been maintained at 2%, and for the next year at 4.5%.

The IMF expects global core inflation to decline somewhat slower than expected in January, reaching 4.3% in 2025 and 3.6% in 2026.

Earlier, IMF Managing Director Kristalina Georgieva noted that the fragmentation of the global trading system has increased attention to national security concerns that favor local production of goods such as steel over their cost, so self-sufficiency is returning.

As GMK Center reported earlier, the World Trade Organization has sharply downgraded its forecast for global merchandise trade in 2025. The figure is now expected to decline by 0.2% instead of the 3% growth that was forecasted in October last year.