Goldman Sachs leaves iron ore price forecast unchanged for the second half of the year

US investment bank Goldman Sachs has not changed its iron ore price forecast for the second half of 2024, The Australian Business Review reports.

The bank’s analysts continue to expect the price of benchmark ore with a 62% iron content to be around $100/t by the end of this year.

As for coking coal, Goldman predicts that the market will be generally balanced in 2024-2026. Growing demand in India will be offset by a moderate recovery in supply in Australia.

At the same time, analysts expect a shortage of this raw material from 2027, which will be caused by insufficient investment in new premium coal supplies in Australia and Canada.

«Coupled with our assessment of a long-term shortage in the metallurgical coal market, we have raised our long-term price target from $205/t to $220/t (in real dollars from 2028),» the report says.

Fitch Ratings has kept its outlook for iron ore and coking coal prices for 2024-2026 unchanged from its March review. As before, the price for these raw materials is expected to reach $105/t in 2024, $90/t in 2025, and $85/t in 2026. As for coking coal, the agency forecasts its price at $240/t in 2024, $190/t in 2025 and $170/t in 2026.

As GMK Center reported earlier, iron ore prices fell by $7-10/t in June. As of June 28, they stood at RMB 819/t ($112.7/t) on the Dalian Exchange and $105.65/t on the Singapore Exchange.