Fitch raises ore price forecast for 2024 to $110/t

In its December review, the international rating agency Fitch Ratings raised its iron ore price forecast for 2024 to $110/t and left its expectations for coking coal unchanged. This is stated in the agency’s report.

Previous expectations were $105/t. As before, the price for this raw material is expected to reach $90/t in 2025 and $85/t in 2026.

According to Fitch Ratings, the increase in the iron ore forecast for 2024 is due to higher prices for this raw material for the year. However, the unchanged outlook for subsequent years continues to reflect a shift to oversupply in the market.

As for coking coal, Fitch confirmed its expectations that the price will reach $240/t in 2024, $190/t in 2025, and $170/t in 2026.

At the same time, BMI, a division of Fitch Solutions, maintained its forecast of the global average steel price for 2025 at $730/t in December. Analysts expect prices in the US to rise amid planned protectionist measures. This will support global average prices, offsetting the negative pressure from weak demand in China. The assumptions for 2026 are $700/t.

BMI notes that an improvement in the Chinese real estate industry after a possible expansion of stimulus measures next year could lead to higher prices.

In November 2024, BMI maintained its iron ore price forecast for 2025 at an average of $100/t. The company’s analysts noted that prices for this raw material are likely to remain highly sensitive to potential stimulus announcements by the Chinese authorities. In the long term, BMI forecasts a drop in iron ore prices from $110/t on average in 2024 to $78/t in 2033.