Exclusive EU HRC prices rise, but market remains volatile – WSD

An attempt to raise prices has been met with weak demand and uncertainty over quotas and tariffs

European producers are trying to increase prices for hot rolled coil (HRC) amid limited supply and low competition from imports. Over the last week, domestic prices rose by €5-10/t to €650-670/t EXW in Northern Europe and €615-630/t EXW in Southern Europe. This is reported by European Steel Dynamics News Service.

At the same time, import prices for HRC remain stable at €540-550/t CIF Italy, i.e. almost €100/t cheaper than European producers. However, import demand is limited by quotas, logistical risks and geopolitical tensions.

Most buyers are not ready for long-term contracts, buying only the minimum required volumes.

“No one knows what to expect from Trump’s actions. He postponed duties for 90 days. But what will happen after those 90 days? There remains a lot of uncertainty,” the European trader noted.

According to market participants, price increases are unlikely to take hold as end-consumer activity remains low. Distributors and service centers report weak demand and reluctance of customers to accept price increases without improved consumption.

Despite this, the EU HRC production margin rose to €216/t in April, the highest since May 2023 and well above the 2017-2019 average (€170/t).

However, WSD estimates that there is a 70% probability of prices maintaining operating levels between €630-650/t, although there are significant downside risks. High profits could stimulate new capacity start-ups, which would put pressure on prices in Q2.

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