Exclusive Coking coal in China fell by $4/t in the first half of May

Large reserves of local producers drive down the price

Spot coking coal prices in China fell by $4/t to $175/t EXW from April 25 to May 9, according to Kallanish. Local mines are currently experiencing surplus production. This is forcing them to reduce their selling prices. Meanwhile, demand from coke plants remains stable.

Oversupply in the Chinese market has reduced imports. Consignments of coking coal from Mongolia have been stuck at the border for a long time due to a lack of orders. Purchases from Australia were also not recorded in the period under review.

The situation may change after the mines’ stocks decline. Futures contracts for delivery in June on the Singapore Exchange were offered at $186/t in the first decade of May. This indicates that prices are expected to rise.

Domestic demand for coke in China remains strong thanks to the steel industry. In this regard, coke exports from China fell by 26.5% – to 1.77 million tons in January-March. Including in March – by 15.6%, to 760 thousand tons.

In the face of overproduction, Chinese mines are trying to sell their surplus on foreign markets. In January-March, exports of coking coal from China increased by 1.8% to 1.41 million tons, including 23.6% to 460 thousand tons in March.

Australian premium coking coal quotations from April 25 to May 9 increased by $5/t to $200/t FOB. The increased demand was driven by Indian coke plants. They are stockpiling ahead of the monsoon season, which is a time of logistical challenges.

Prices are expected to stabilize or even decline in the near future. This is due to the resumption of supplies to the market from the state of Queensland. Earlier, local mines stopped working due to heavy rains.

As reported, in April 2025, China’s steel mills increased steel exports by 13.4% y/y to 10.46 million tons. This is the highest level since September 2015. In 4 months, Chinese steel exports increased by 8.2% – to 37.89 million tons.