macroeconomics News — GMK Center

Capital investment in Ukraine rose by 5.1 per cent y/y in Q1

Masha Malonog — Thu, 18 Jun 2026 10:36:25 +0000

Capital investment in January–March this year rose by 5.1 per cent year-on-year to 130.1 billion hryvnias, according to the State Statistics Service. Over 41 per cent, or 53.6 billion hryvnias, of the total value of capital investment was accounted for by industry. Around 13 per cent, or 16.5 billion hryvnias, went to agriculture, forestry and […]

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The State Statistics Service has revised the rate of GDP decline in Q1 downwards to 0.6% y/y

Masha Malonog — Fri, 12 Jun 2026 09:56:03 +0000

The State Statistics Service has revised downwards its estimate of the decline in Ukraine’s real GDP in the first quarter compared with the same period last year, from 0.5% to 0.6%. Compared with the previous quarter, taking seasonal factors into account, real GDP fell by 0.7%. This was reported by the State Statistics Service. Nominal […]

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Imports of goods into Ukraine have risen by 29%, while exports – by 3.6% over the past five months

Masha Malonog — Tue, 09 Jun 2026 08:05:21 +0000

In January–May, imports of goods into Ukraine totaled $40.5 billion, while exports amounted to $17.5 billion. Over the first five months of 2026, imports increased by 29.4% compared to the same period last year, while exports rose by just 3.6%. This was reported by the State Customs Service. The largest volumes of exports from Ukraine […]

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The government has approved Ukraine’s export strategy up to 2030

Masha Malonog — Fri, 05 Jun 2026 08:28:36 +0000

The government has approved Ukraine’s new Export Strategy for the period up to 2030. The document aims to increase the total volume of exports of goods and services to $85 billion from $48 billion by 2025, and to reduce the share of raw materials and low-value-added products within this total to 59% from 87.3%. This […]

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Industrial production fell by 0.4% y/y in January–April

Masha Malonog — Thu, 04 Jun 2026 11:46:43 +0000

Industrial production in Ukraine fell by 0.4% year-on-year in the January–April period. This is linked to a decline in economic activity caused by power shortages resulting from attacks on energy infrastructure. This was reported by the State Statistics Service. The industrial production growth rate in April rose by 1.2% compared with April 2025. The extractive […]

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The impact of the war in the Middle East on Ukraine’s economy in 2026: the NBU’s perspective

Masha Malonog — Thu, 28 May 2026 12:27:11 +0000

Volodymyr Lepushinsky, Deputy Governor of the National Bank of Ukraine (NBU), discussed the scenarios and potential impacts of the war in the Persian Gulf on the Ukrainian economy during his remarks at the online discussion “Global Signals – Implications for Ukraine: Economic Outlook 2026,” hosted by the Vox Ukraine think tank. The GMK Center presents […]

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The government has drafted a new economic strategy amid a 0.5% y/y decline in the economy during Q1

Masha Malonog — Mon, 25 May 2026 10:54:03 +0000

The first quarter of 2026 confirmed alarming trends in the Ukrainian economy: real GDP contracted, business activity fell to a three-year low, and inflationary pressures are mounting. Against this backdrop, the government submitted a new 15-year strategy, “Economy of the Future,” for consideration, but experts have questioned its feasibility. At the same time, concerns are […]

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Construction works completed in Ukraine fell by 4.7% y/y in Q1

Masha Malonog — Wed, 13 May 2026 08:50:45 +0000

The volume of construction work completed in Ukraine in January–March 2026 decreased by 4.7% compared to the same period last year, totaling 40.2 billion hryvnias. This is according to data from the State Statistics Service. In March, construction volumes fell by 9.4% compared to the same month last year, with residential construction decreasing by 16.2%, […]

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Imports to Ukraine have risen by 30%, while exports have increased by 4.5% over the past four months

Masha Malonog — Fri, 08 May 2026 09:07:45 +0000

According to figures for January–April 2026, imports of goods into Ukraine totaled $32.2 billion, while exports amounted to $13.9 billion. The volume of imports over the first four months of 2026 increased by 30% compared to the same period last year, while exports rose by only 4.5%. This was reported by the State Customs Service. […]

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Industrial production in Ukraine fell by 1.1% y/y in Q1

Masha Malonog — Wed, 06 May 2026 08:01:45 +0000

Industrial production in January–March 2026 fell by 1.1% compared to the same period last year. At the same time, in March of this year, industrial production rose by 4.5% compared to the same month in 2025. This was reported by the State Statistics Service. The slowdown is due to a combination of factors: high costs […]

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Ukraine’s GDP contracted by 0.5% y/y in Q1

Masha Malonog — Wed, 06 May 2026 07:28:38 +0000

According to preliminary estimates, Ukraine’s real GDP contracted by 0.5% in the first quarter of 2026 compared to the same period last year. At the same time, the figure decreased by 0.7% compared to the previous quarter (seasonally adjusted). This was reported by the State Statistics Service. The preliminary GDP estimate is based on preliminary […]

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The eurozone’s monetary policy will depend on the extent of disruptions in the energy sector

Masha Malonog — Tue, 07 Apr 2026 10:40:45 +0000

The eurozone’s monetary policy will depend on the scale and nature of energy supply disruptions caused by the war with Iran. This was stated by Yannis Stournaras, a member of the Governing Council of the European Central Bank (ECB) and Governor of the Bank of Greece, according to Reuters. According to him, if the spike […]

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Industrial production in Ukraine fell by 2.6% y/y in February – State Statistics Service

Masha Malonog — Fri, 03 Apr 2026 10:48:53 +0000

Ukraine’s industrial production fell by 2.6% year-on-year in February of this year. This is according to data from the State Statistics Service (SSS). For the January–February period, the indicator fell by 4.6% year-on-year. According to the State Statistics Service, the industrial production index for January–February of this year, compared to the same period in 2025, […]

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The volume of construction in Ukraine remains almost 40% below pre-war levels

Masha Malonog — Mon, 16 Mar 2026 06:00:50 +0000

The volume of construction work performed in Ukraine in 2025 increased by 12% y/y, to UAH 248 billion. For the second year in a row, the industry has seen a slowdown in growth: in 2023 and 2024, the figure was 25% y/y and 15.5% y/y, respectively. The slowdown is due to limited opportunities for state […]

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Industrial production declined due to the decline in the extractive industry in 2025

Masha Malonog — Sun, 08 Mar 2026 14:00:01 +0000

For the first time since 2023, Ukrainian industry showed negative growth. At the end of 2025, industrial production declined by 2.4% year-on-year, compared to growth of 3.6% year-on-year in 2024. The slowdown was caused by a combination of factors: high cost of electricity and gas; interruptions in energy supply due to shelling of energy infrastructure; […]

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Ukraine’s GDP in 2025 was 21% lower than its pre-war level

Masha Malonog — Tue, 17 Feb 2026 06:00:01 +0000

The overall economic situation last year was difficult due to constant systematic shelling of all types of critical infrastructure. Ukraine was effectively left without drivers of growth – the main factor supporting the economy was external financing, which amounted to $52.4 billion last year. By the end of 2025, real GDP had recovered to 79% […]

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How the Ukrainian economy developed in 2025

Masha Malonog — Wed, 11 Feb 2026 07:00:49 +0000

After Ukraine’s real GDP grew by 2.9% y/y in 2024, the Ukrainian economy slowed down. According to the results of 2025, the National Bank estimates the growth of the Ukrainian economy at 2% y/y, the Ministry of Economy at 2.2% y/y, and the Institute for Economic Research and Policy Consulting (IER) at 1.8% y/y. Positive […]

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Inflation in the eurozone slowed to 1.7% y/y in January

Masha Malonog — Wed, 04 Feb 2026 14:44:33 +0000

Annual inflation in the eurozone fell to 1.7% in January 2026, compared to 2% in December last year. This is according to preliminary estimates by Eurostat. Consumer price growth last month was held back by lower energy costs and the strengthening of the euro. Core inflation (excluding food and energy prices) slowed to 2.2% in […]

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The US Federal Reserve kept its key interest rate at 3.5-3.75%

Masha Malonog — Thu, 29 Jan 2026 08:14:39 +0000

On January 28, the US Federal Reserve System (Fed) kept the federal funds rate at 3.5-3.75%. This was announced in a statement by the Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC). “Available indicators suggest that economic activity is growing at a steady pace. Employment growth remains low, and the unemployment rate shows signs of stabilizing. Inflation remains […]

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The situation in the metal ore mining sector in Ukraine deteriorated sharply in 2025

Masha Malonog — Wed, 07 Jan 2026 07:50:10 +0000

Conjunctural assessments indicate that the current situation in mining and steel companies looks somewhat worse than the average for Ukrainian industry. The balance of responses (the prevalence of negative assessments over positive ones) when assessing the current volume of orders in November 2025 in the metal ore mining industry was -53%, and in metallurgy -46%. […]

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The global economy and economies’ of Ukrainian major partners in 2026

Masha Malonog — Tue, 06 Jan 2026 09:00:32 +0000

In the context of war, the Ukrainian economy is even more dependent on the state of the global economy as a whole and its largest partners in particular. Next year is expected to be a period of moderate growth amid geopolitical instability, rising protectionism, and continued weakness in the European economy. Expectations for the global […]

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Ukrainian businesses are mostly showing negative expectations for 2026

Masha Malonog — Mon, 05 Jan 2026 09:00:29 +0000

Leading indicators point to a decline in business confidence in the fall of 2025 due to a significant electricity shortage for industrial consumers following attacks on energy infrastructure. Against this backdrop, economic indicators have mostly moved into negative territory, although they border on cautious optimism and a moderate assessment of macroeconomic prospects. It is clear […]

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Analysts expect Ukraine’s GDP to grow to $226 billion in 2026

Masha Malonog — Tue, 30 Dec 2025 08:00:03 +0000

The economic situation in Ukraine is rapidly deteriorating. Economic problems that have accumulated since the beginning of the war, systematic shelling of all types of critical infrastructure, and increased tariff pressure from state monopolies have led to Ukrainian GDP growing by only 1.9% y/y in 2025 (NBU forecast) amid 2.9% y/y growth in 2024. For […]

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The NBU has «plan B» in case of a lack of financial support from international partners

Masha Malonog — Fri, 19 Dec 2025 06:00:52 +0000

According to all forecasts, next year will be worse than this year. The NBU expects Ukraine’s economy to grow by only 2% in 2026. The main risks remain the continuation of the war, shelling of energy infrastructure, and staff shortages, compounded by a likely lack of financial support from international partners. However, the National Bank […]

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Key economic indicators of Ukraine for the first nine months of 2025

Masha Malonog — Mon, 17 Nov 2025 06:00:45 +0000

Macroeconomic indicators for the first nine months of 2025 show that the Ukrainian economy has returned to minimal growth. This situation is natural for a country at war. Without additional powerful drivers, economic activity in the country will not grow, and any even slight deterioration in the military or geopolitical situation could lead to recession. […]

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Key economic indicators in 1H2025

Masha Malonog — Fri, 05 Sep 2025 08:03:48 +0000

The results of the first six months of 2025 show that Ukraine’s economic growth reserves have effectively reached their limits. The previously dominant factor in development — the recovery effect after the 2022 recession, combined with budgetary stimulus and international financial assistance — is no longer capable of sustaining economic activity. As a result, most […]

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The Ukrainian economy entered a recession in 1H2025

Masha Malonog — Thu, 31 Jul 2025 06:00:01 +0000

The growth of the Ukrainian economy began to slow down in the second quarter of 2024, and based on the results of the first half of 2025, it can be stated that, according to certain indicators, it has already entered a state of recession. There are practically no growth drivers left, the Cabinet’s economic policy […]

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The ECB is well positioned to operate in uncertain conditions – Lagarde

Masha Malonog — Tue, 24 Jun 2025 07:40:02 +0000

The European Central Bank (ECB) sees risks of a slowdown in economic activity in the eurozone in the near term, but the regulator is well positioned to navigate uncertainty. This was stated by ECB President Christine Lagarde at a hearing of the European Parliament’s Committee on Economic and Monetary Affairs. Higher tariffs and a stronger […]

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ECB cuts interest rates for the eighth time in a year

Masha Malonog — Fri, 06 Jun 2025 07:38:25 +0000

On June 5, the European Central Bank (ECB) cut key interest rates by 25 basis points. This is stated in the regulator’s report. The deposit rate will be 2% starting June 11, the main refinancing rate will be 2.15%, and the margin loan rate will be 2.4%. The regulator has also lowered its inflation forecasts […]

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Macroeconomic situation in Ukraine significantly deteriorated in the first half of the year

Masha Malonog — Thu, 05 Jun 2025 06:00:31 +0000

The macroeconomic situation in Ukraine is deteriorating amid the absence of significant factors that would contribute to its improvement. Of course, under the conditions of war there are many factors that hinder the revival of economic activity, but we cannot say that since the beginning of the year the overall military and political situation has […]

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US Federal Reserve kept its key policy rate in the range of 4.25-4.5% for the third consecutive time

Masha Malonog — Thu, 08 May 2025 07:02:36 +0000

The US Federal Reserve System (FRS) has kept the federal funds rate in the range of 4.25-4.5% per annum. This is stated in the report of the Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC). As noted, although fluctuations in net exports have affected the data, recent indicators suggest that economic activity continues to grow at a high […]

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ECB cuts key policy rates by 25 basis points

Masha Malonog — Thu, 17 Apr 2025 13:18:29 +0000

The European Central Bank (ECB) has cut three key interest rates by 25 basis points. This is stated in the regulator’s report. Thus, starting April 23, the deposit rate will be 2.25%, the main refinancing rate will be 2.4%, and the margin lending rate will be 2.65%. As noted, the process of disinflation is proceeding […]

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The US Federal Reserve left the key policy rate in the range of 4.25-4.5%

Masha Malonog — Thu, 20 Mar 2025 08:06:50 +0000

On March 19, the US Federal Reserve System (FRS) maintained the federal funds rate in the range of 4.25-4.5% per annum. This is stated in the report of the Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC). As noted, the latest indicators show that economic activity in the country continues to develop at a steady pace. In recent […]

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Inflation in Ukraine accelerated to 13.4 y/y in February

Masha Malonog — Tue, 11 Mar 2025 11:51:33 +0000

Consumer price growth in Ukraine slowed to 0.8% in February 2025 from 1.2% in January. This is according to the State Statistics Service. On an annualized basis, inflation accelerated to 13.4% in February. Core inflation last month fell to 0.7% from 1.3% in January and December. According to the agency, prices for food and non-alcoholic […]

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ECB cuts key interest rates for the second time since the beginning of the year

Masha Malonog — Thu, 06 Mar 2025 14:25:40 +0000

On March 6, the European Central Bank (ECB) again cut all three key interest rates by 25 basis points. This is stated in the regulator’s report. Starting March 12, the base rate on deposits will be 2.5%, the rate on main refinancing operations will be 2.65%, and the rate on margin loans will be 2.9%. […]

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ECB cuts key interest rates by 25 basis points

Masha Malonog — Thu, 30 Jan 2025 14:46:26 +0000

On January 30, the European Central Bank (ECB) again cut all three key interest rates by 25 basis points (bps). This is stated in the regulator’s report. Starting February 5, the deposit rate will be 2.75%, the main refinancing rate will be 2.9%, and the margin loan rate will be 3.15%. According to the ECB, […]

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FRS has kept the key rate in the range of 4.25-4.5%

Masha Malonog — Thu, 30 Jan 2025 13:46:42 +0000

The US Federal Reserve System (FRS) has kept the federal funds rate in the range of 4.25-4.5% per annum. This is stated in the report of the Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC). As noted, recent indicators show that economic activity continues to develop at a steady pace. The unemployment rate has stabilized at a low […]

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FED cuts key policy rate by 25 basis points

Masha Malonog — Thu, 19 Dec 2024 10:11:04 +0000

The US Federal Reserve has cut the federal funds rate by 25 basis points (bps) to 4.25-4.5% per annum. This is stated in the report of the Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC). “The latest indicators suggest that economic activity continues to grow at a high pace. Labor market conditions have generally improved since the beginning […]

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ECB cuts key interest rates again

Masha Malonog — Thu, 12 Dec 2024 14:59:53 +0000

On December 12 this year, the European Central Bank (ECB) again cut all three key interest rates by 25 basis points (bps). This is stated in the regulator’s message. The deposit rate is now 3%, the main refinancing rate is 3.15%, and the margin loan rate is 3.4%. In particular, the decision to reduce the […]

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ECB cuts key interest rates for the third time in a year

Masha Malonog — Thu, 17 Oct 2024 13:47:56 +0000

The European Central Bank (ECB) on October 17, as expected by analysts, lowered key interest rates by 25 basis points. This is stated in the notification of the regulator. The new interest rates are set at 3.4% for main refinancing operations, 3.65% for margin loans and 3.25% for deposits. This is the third decrease in […]

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Eurozone inflation slowed to 1.8% in September

Masha Malonog — Tue, 01 Oct 2024 11:07:48 +0000

Inflation in the Eurozone in September 2024 increased by 1.8% compared to the same month of 2023. Thus, the indicator slowed down compared to August, when it was 2.2%. This is evidenced by preliminary Eurostat data. The consensus forecast of analysts, cited by Trading Economics, expected a reduction in the growth rate of consumer prices […]

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Ukraine’s GDP growth slowed to 3.7% y/y in Q2

Masha Malonog — Thu, 26 Sep 2024 09:18:51 +0000

Ukraine’s real gross domestic product (GDP) grew by 3.7% in the second quarter of 2024 compared to the same period in 2023. This is evidenced by preliminary data from the State Statistics Service. At the same time, the country’s economy grew by 0.2% compared to the previous quarter, taking into account the seasonal factor. Meanwhile, […]

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Industrial production in the EU decreased by 0.1% m/m in July

Masha Malonog — Fri, 13 Sep 2024 11:46:07 +0000

In July 2024, seasonally adjusted industrial production in the EU decreased by 0.1% compared to June. In the euro area, the figure decreased by 0.3% m/m. This is evidenced by preliminary data from Eurostat. Compared to July 2023, industrial production in the euro area decreased by 2.2%, in the EU – by 1.7%. Among the […]

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The ECB cut all three key interest rates

Masha Malonog — Thu, 12 Sep 2024 14:10:47 +0000

The European Central Bank (ECB) has cut all three key interest rates. This decision was made following a meeting on 12 September 2024, the ECB said in a statement. The deposit rate was cut by 25 basis points to 3.5%. In March, the regulator announced that the difference between the main refinancing operations (MRO) rate […]

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Steel demand in Europe may improve only in 2025

Masha Malonog — Mon, 09 Sep 2024 05:04:03 +0000

During the war, the European Union became Ukraine’s largest trading partner. This was facilitated by the lifting of trade restrictions and geographical proximity, which is important in the face of logistical difficulties. In the first half of 2024, Ukrainian exports to the EU amounted to $11 billion, or 56% of the total. Europe is even […]

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