Australia increased iron ore exports to 75 million tons in July

Australian iron ore producers exported 75 million tons in July 2025, up 5% from July 2024, despite lower demand from some key consumers in Asia. China remained the main driver of growth, while shipments to South Korea and Vietnam fell significantly, according to Argus.Media.

In July, China imported 63 million tons of Australian ore, up 7.4% year-on-year. This is due to increased steel production in the country, although market participants expect a decline in late August-early September.

Unlike China, South Korea reduced its purchases by 22% y/y to 4.3 million tons. This was due to a 5% y/y decline in steel production in July, from 5.5 million tons to 5.3 million tons. Vietnam reduced its imports of Australian ore even more significantly, by 37% y/y, to 663,000 tons.

Shipments to Japan remained almost unchanged at 4.4 million tons (+0.2% y/y). At the same time, Japan’s Ministry of Economy, Trade and Industry forecasts a 2.3% y/y decline in steel production in the country in July-September, which will be the second consecutive quarter of decline.

Preliminary data indicate that Australian ore exports may rise again in August. Total shipments from the four main ports of Western Australia rose by 0.2% y/y. The growth was driven by China, while shipments to Japan and South Korea declined again.

Against the backdrop of stable demand in China, ore prices are rising. The Argus ICX index (62% Fe, CFR Qingdao) has risen from $93.05/t at the beginning of July to $103.35/t as of September 3. This signals that Australian suppliers remain competitive in the global market despite challenging conditions for the steel industry in other Asian countries.

In January-July, Australian mining companies exported 517.4 million tons of iron ore, up 0.5% compared to the same period in 2024. The average price of raw materials fell to $83.8/t (-14.2% y-o-y), and export revenues amounted to $43.4 billion (-13.6% y-o-y).

As GMK Center reported earlier, Australia forecasts a decline in iron ore export revenues from $116 billion in fiscal year 2024-2025 to $97 billion in 2026-2027. The main reasons cited are weak global demand for steel, reduced production in China, and gradual market saturation from Brazil and Africa. At the same time, the report notes that FOB iron ore prices (62% Fe) will fall on average from $93/t in 2024 to $83/t in 2025 and $74/t in 2027.